#bitcoin-wizards on 2015-12-27 — irc logs at freenode.irclog.whitequark.org

2015-10-30 00:53 sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development | http://bitcoin.ninja/ | This channel is logged. | For logs and more information, visit http://bitcoin.ninja

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07:15 <bramc> Some actual data on full nodes: https://bitnodes.21.co/dashboard/?days=365

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11:20 <adlai> "censorship resistant bandwidth" is trivial to measure, 144*10e6

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16:31 <simbit> How did luke-jr calculated 50 years in here? https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/3ydwg2/warning_abnormally_high_number_of_blocks/

16:40 <alpalp> That calculation does seem a bit high

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17:14 <Luke-Jr> simbit: I read the comment in https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/src/main.cpp#L1924

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17:19 <fluffypony> blame says that's gavinandresen's calculation, simbit

17:19 <fluffypony> so check with him

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17:23 <simbit> Can anyone see a problem there?

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17:48 <jl2012> Should be 43.8 years: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%284+%2F+%2824+*+365%29%29+%2F+%28poisson+distribution%2824%29%3E%3D48%29

17:49 <jl2012> we just had 12 blocks in last hour again

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19:38 * adlai doesn't get why there's a panic over the mere fact of hashrate rising... this just dilutes panics over actual risks

19:38 <adlai> and yes, implementing an alert in a client = asking for fire in a crowded theatre

19:38 <kanzure> an alert message isn't to induce panic, it's a notification.

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19:39 <adlai> i guess it's less panic-inducing if it comes with all the math

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19:45 <alpalp> jl2012: that is not correct since every 4 hour period starts with every block, not every 4 hours.

19:45 <alpalp> so it's actually a lot more likely than 43.8 hours

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19:50 <alpalp> For example, you could flip coins (1 per second) for eternity, the odds of getting 100 heads in a row isn't based on taking the number of 100-flip groups, but every flip is the potential start of a 100 flip sequence of heads.

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22:23 <phantomcircuit> Luke-Jr, i seem to remember the calculation in the comment being wrong but cannot remember why

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22:34 <alpalp> the math is off by a factor of 48

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