2015-10-30 00:53
sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development |
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<
maaku >
CubicEarth: my guess: the code that is making those charts is not properly accounting for the fact that immediately surrounding a difficulty drop blocks have different difficulties
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<
maaku >
if difficulty rises 2% at block N, does the chart making plot (time(N) - time(N-2016)) / diff(N)?
06:29
<
maaku >
that would make the observed sawtooth pattern
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<
sipa >
maaku: it's a much more complicated hashrate estimation formula, based on exponentially-weighted data, and then smoothed
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<
sipa >
CubicEarth: 1% is also 10% over 10 days
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<
sipa >
if the hashrate has sustained growth you can expect pretty sharp drops
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CubicEarth >
sipa: your other charts of hash rate estimates show as expected, with all sorts of nice undulations
07:35
<
CubicEarth >
I still don't understand the saw-tooth, unless you are somehow using difficulty in there?
07:36
<
CubicEarth >
the target difficulty...
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gmaxwell >
powdays effectively differentiates hashrate
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gmaxwell >
increases show up as abrupt drops.
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<
CubicEarth >
and what would decreases show up as?
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<
CubicEarth >
why not abrupt rises? (which there seem to be none)
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<
gmaxwell >
hashrate drops show up as flattenign the line. If hashrate were constant you'd get a 45 deg angle line, which you see in some segments.
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<
gmaxwell >
it does slope up more than 45 deg in some spots, but not much, because ... the hasrate has not fallen much in the scope of the graph
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