sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development | http://bitcoin.ninja/ | This channel is logged. | For logs and more information, visit http://bitcoin.ninja
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<nickler>
nick_freeman: s/your UTXOs/UTXOs with the same public key/. But basically yes. Don't reuse addresses.
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<pinheadmz>
re: bip-taproot. Why are program lengths besides 32 bytes unemcumbered? I imagine the answer is "extensibility" but segwit version 0 fails on lengths besides 20 and 32 bytes -- was extensibility not desired for that scheme?
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<sipa_>
pinheadmz: segwit v0 requiring length 20 or 32 was a mistake
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<sipa>
ghost43: bch codes are only designed to detect substitution errors
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<natasha-otomoski>
hello we have successfully launched our quantum proof anonymous token on the Bitcoin blockchain. More than 4.8 tokens in circulation. If there is interest in getting trace amount of the token to you just to test it, please let us know.
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<jeremyrubin>
ghost43: I believe it's so that we can have different lengths used as an additional versioning mechanism if we come up with a new thing
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<sipa>
jeremyrubin: this issue is definitely not by design
<sipa>
and if taken insertion into account, at least a slightly better code could have been picked
<jeremyrubin>
No I meant for taproot
<jeremyrubin>
that it's unencumbered
<sipa>
ah,of course
<sipa>
right
<jeremyrubin>
because it would (without something clever) be a hard fork to lift the 20 or 32 limit on v0
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<ghost43>
there are so many upgrade mechanisms now, it's getting confusing
<ghost43>
taproot itself adds like 3 new ways?
<ghost43>
but sure, let's add another in terms of witness program length
<sipa>
well they come at no cost, really, if they're not used
<sipa>
taproot adds leaf versions and op_successx
<jeremyrubin>
Yeah it's a free option for whatever is best in the future
<jeremyrubin>
sipa: I guess the leaf versions cost 1 bytes ;)
<sipa>
no, we need a byte anyway there
<ghost43>
there was something about the pubkey byte as well, when it was still 33 bytes
<sipa>
the alternative would be wasting 7 bits
<jeremyrubin>
ah right to tag it as a leaf
<sipa>
no, to convey the sign of the taproot equation
<sipa>
Q = P + H(P,M) or Q = -(P + H(P,M)G)
<jeremyrubin>
Oh right, I forgot about that one
<sipa>
ghost43: right
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<sipa>
but i think none of these come at any cost really; they're otherwise wasted
<sipa>
of course if your argument is that they add complexity to understanding the design, that's fair
<ghost43>
but so what about the witness program length restriction? is that left unrestricted now specifically to add a new upgrade mechanism?
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<sipa>
yes, of course
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<sipa>
or rather, left undefined because there is no need to define it
<ghost43>
well if it is restricted like with v0, then the insertion/deletion errors are covered :P
<ghost43>
so there *is* a cost :)
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<sipa>
that's fair
<ghost43>
then again, if you make an insertion/deletion error then it's anyone can spend so miners can help recover the coins, or get it for themselves, it's not fully burned
<jeremyrubin>
Software will restrict it to 32 bytes
<sipa>
jeremyrubin: it depends
<jeremyrubin>
theres a difference between the address and the script opcode processing
<jeremyrubin>
So a sane service shouldn't let you send to an unknown v1 length
<sipa>
ideally software is able to send to future witness versions, which also includes unknown lengths
<jeremyrubin>
At least it can be like "Are you positive"
<jeremyrubin>
I guess I mean less able to block, but more able to detect that it's probably a mistake
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<sipa>
removing one character from a 32-byte bip173 address will always be invalid (as it doesn't align with a integer number of bytes converted to 8-to-5 bits to characters)
<sipa>
but adding one could in some cases
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<M7918070_[m]>
Hello, I've a question about the oracle problem
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<M7918070_[m]>
How come it can't be solved by miners themselves deciding on the truth? It is incentive-compatible, as if a miner were to create a chain "backed" by an incorrect fact, coins on that chain (e.g. their block reward) would be worthless
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<sipa>
M7918070_[m]: if that's the case, why isn't it sufficient to ignore the double spending problem, and assume that miners will not mine a chain that contains a theft?
<M7918070_[m]>
Because it's already impossible - the consensus will reject it.
<sipa>
yes, but why is it necessary that consensus rejects it?
<sipa>
by your argument, it should be sufficient that miners are incentivized not to permit it
<sipa>
the answer is because we prefer not to trust miners except with the absolute necessity
<M7918070_[m]>
It should be. It would be absurd to create such a blockchain, since miners and such would have to expend far more work and it's trivial to check programmatically
<M7918070_[m]>
As in, if you already have the blockchain, then making sure the payments are valid is effectively zero-cost
<M7918070_[m]>
Miners would not be trusted here, the economic majority would.
<M7918070_[m]>
I believe the bitcoin wiki already addresses this objection
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<M7918070_[m]>
The only difference is a strict performance optimization. In theory, we could go look at each block and ensure it pays out the protocol-specified block-reward. In practice, this is absurd when we have computers to do it for us.
<M7918070_[m]>
But assuming there existed some sort of law against specifically using computers to verify that the block reward does not exceed 50/floor(log2((time-start)/4 years)) BTC, the currency would still work
<M7918070_[m]>
Each time a miner created a block paying out 100 BTC, nobody would be willing to trade such a chain. I don't see any difference here.
<M7918070_[m]>
In practice, it would be enough to support futures contracts based on these outcomes (e.g. prediction markets), then have miners observe these to decide on what to assert. There would be no way to game such a mechanism, as I see it
<sipa>
you do run into other problems, like the fact that the statements being claimed need to be visible to miners, and thus to everyone
<M7918070_[m]>
Yes
<M7918070_[m]>
Not unlike how in bitcoin, all transactions must be public
<M7918070_[m]>
It would still be good enough for e.g. prediction markets
<sipa>
and that they need to be precisely defined, as leaving things open to interpretation may mean consensus failures (maybe not strict consensus failure in the technical sense, but if many auditing nodes would observe that miners where lying about the outcomes, maybe just a little bit, some would accept it, and others wouldn't)
<M7918070_[m]>
yeah you'd have a lot of consensus failures
<M7918070_[m]>
and a lot of forks
<M7918070_[m]>
the free market would decide which ones to throw in the bin
<ghost43>
miners are just running software. software that objectively picks txns and constructs blocks. this software does not have objective knowledge of the real world such as the winner of a football game. are you proposing miners would not mine a tx where an oracle lies about the winner of a football game? but how would the miner know the real winner? do they need another oracle now? :P
<M7918070_[m]>
The operators of the software does
<sipa>
the goal of using an automatated system is to avoid the need for human intervention... it's not perfect, as in the case of actual disagreements about what the consensus rules ought to be, indeed a free market will choose one set of rules over another
<sipa>
but that operates on the scale of weeks or more, not individual blocks
<sipa>
your suggestion i think means the equivalent of making every individual outcome a new consensus choice that the system needs to settle on
<M7918070_[m]>
Just like how miners decide on whether to use their hardware to mine
<M7918070_[m]>
BTC or BCH. The determinant of this is their profit, which is given by difficulty and exchange rates; they seek to maximize dollars per hash per second
<sipa>
and unless you're going to introduce fixed identities to miners, so they have a reputation to stake on their decision, this seems like a very significant step backwards
<M7918070_[m]>
It would be possible to only require resolution once per week, or even further in between. As per spot-future parity, the prices would still be accurate.
<sipa>
at which point i don't think you have anything better than just having trusted oracles in the first place
<M7918070_[m]>
Trusted oracles can't resolve all publicly known outcomes, though. And would presumably be forced to enact KYC, etc eventually
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<M7918070_[m]>
What would be the downside if miners did not have a known identity?
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<M7918070_[m]>
They still would have a hashrate to earn money off.
<sipa>
M7918070_[m]: the whole point is that mining is permissionless!
<sipa>
if miners need an identity, we can just get rid of proof-of-work
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<M7918070_[m]>
Miners can switch between many different currencies in seconds solely based on what gives them the most fiat for their hashrate.
<M7918070_[m]>
This is based on an external oracle (in this case, the pool)
<M7918070_[m]>
Yes, I don't see why that would ahve to change
<M7918070_[m]>
Miners should not have any identity
<M7918070_[m]>
I do not see why that would be a problem
<M7918070_[m]>
They would still have incentives not to flush their block reward down the toilet
<ghost43>
you should clearly specify what you are suggesting
<sipa>
then i can't trust the decision a particular miner makes!
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<sipa>
before judging it for myself
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<sipa>
so you'd have an effective once-a-week the entire ecosystem stops until people have verified using out-of-band consensus mechanisms that the outcome of oracles was decided correctly by miners
<M7918070_[m]>
Yes, but it would be trivial to judge these outcomes. In fact, the network would do so before you had to.
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<M7918070_[m]>
Yeah, that's about right. Although I would not imagine them to be too severe
<M7918070_[m]>
If you required outcomes to resolve far after the event, there would e no problem
<sipa>
their operators aren't around to act within milliseconds when a block is produced
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<M7918070_[m]>
They would presumably commit to it beforehand. If they knew that in two days, these specific things will be decided on and you have to reach a decision or copy someone else, that is far more time than a few ms
<M7918070_[m]>
ghost43: Your idea is basically right
<ghost43>
you mean that Barclays picture from the 1800s is how you imagine mining? :D
<M7918070_[m]>
I think it makes the most sense to think of it as a currency solely for prediction markets - I'm assuming whatever other applications there are could trivially be synthesized by them
<M7918070_[m]>
Yes, more or less. You'd have some guy, the pool operator, looking over the list of "stuff we have to know the answer to before 2019-11-12 01:23:18 UTC," and making a decision for each one
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<M7918070_[m]>
and he'd ask his underlings to make the decisions for him
<ghost43>
aham. so you want humans involved in consensus?
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<M7918070_[m]>
Considering that there would be many such pools, and many such brokerages (if the idea works), it would in practice resolve to something far simpler
<M7918070_[m]>
yes, that is correct
<ghost43>
so how would full nodes work?
<M7918070_[m]>
1. Futures contracts contingent on the outcomes are traded on a market
<M7918070_[m]>
like in BTC. Only they'd have a rpc command, "assert"
<M7918070_[m]>
which adds a rule to reject any incoming blocks which do not agree with that statement
<M7918070_[m]>
so, you'd make txns with some predicate (a sha-256 hash of a message or such) and a date, by which it is DEFINITELY resolved
<M7918070_[m]>
as in, for 2016 election, not Election Day, but say Inauguration Day
<M7918070_[m]>
Then, when that block comes up, miners can choose to include in another root (next to merkleRoot, say call it truthRoot)
<ghost43>
this would effectively mean you cannot use bitcoin trustlessly, which is the whole point
<M7918070_[m]>
"Winner of 2016 election", "Donald J. Trump"
<M7918070_[m]>
(it is easier to reason about real-life examples, I don't intend to make any statements)
<M7918070_[m]>
Why couldn't you?
<ghost43>
if every full node operator would have to validate all these transactions by hand...
<M7918070_[m]>
You wouldn't have to trust miners.
<M7918070_[m]>
They would not, they would only have the opportunity to.
<ghost43>
how would I know who won the 2016 us presidential election?
<ghost43>
from the newspaper?
<M7918070_[m]>
In most cases, a consensus would be reached out-of-band. A full-node operator could study this and see if there are any particular cases with which the outcome of which he or she takes objection, and then only manually research this
<M7918070_[m]>
google, newspaper, water cooler
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<ghost43>
hash functions or ECC math is nice because I can validate it without external information
<M7918070_[m]>
who knows
<M7918070_[m]>
Yes, this is less nice. But it is less less nice than a designated oracle.
<M7918070_[m]>
Here, anyone could be their own oracle.
<M7918070_[m]>
The way I envision this working in practice is something like this
<ghost43>
not *anyone* rather *everyone*
<ghost43>
you are externalising the cost
<ghost43>
to everyone
<M7918070_[m]>
no, not everyone
<M7918070_[m]>
the market would settle it
<M7918070_[m]>
(I'll assume you're making a prediction market for politics, since that's easy to reason about)
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<M7918070_[m]>
So, you create futures that pay out 1 X-coin if Trump wins, and 0 else. And you do this for each outcome. Some futures pay out 1 if Clinton wins, 0 else. Some futures pay out
<M7918070_[m]>
between 0 and 1, equal to the Republican Party's vote share
<M7918070_[m]>
(These securities could only be bought/issued in pairs, of their "mirror image")
<M7918070_[m]>
You'd then sell of the one you don't want.
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<M7918070_[m]>
So, if you want to bet 100 X-coin on "Clinton wins," you buy 100 X-coin, issue 100 "1 if Clinton else 0" and 100 "0 if Clinton else 1" tokens.
<M7918070_[m]>
Then sell off the 0 if clinton else 1
<M7918070_[m]>
These prices can then be observed on a market. By trivial formulae, the market-implied probability of an event could be calculated given the risk-free rate
<M7918070_[m]>
(If "1 X-coin if Clinton wins" is trading at 0.8 X-coin, the market implies her to be roughly 80% likely to do so)
<M7918070_[m]>
now, at inauguration day, the value of such a security would be 0. Thus, a node could just observe the market and assume it's right.
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<M7918070_[m]>
In cases of large-scale market manipulation, that would indeed not hold. But such market manipulation would only be profitable if the economic majority accepted the (incorrect) resolution it was trying to force.
<M7918070_[m]>
People would thus note they could buy "Clinton loses" shares at a steep discount, but gain 1 Winning-branch X-coin
<M7918070_[m]>
fuck I mean 1 Losing-branch X-coin
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<M7918070_[m]>
Winning-branch here means "branch in which C wins", not "branch with most PoW"
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<M7918070_[m]>
Now, assuming they had faith in that the economic majority would choose to value the Losing-branch more, they would invest an infinite sum of money in dismanipulating the market as it would be in their best interests and earn them a risk-free profit.
<M7918070_[m]>
This would make the scheme unprofitable and thus never done, if and only if people did indeed have such faith. But as it would be the only application of this currency, I don't see why they wouldn't. Or rather, why they would want to invest money in a chain built on falsehood.
<M7918070_[m]>
It's messy, yes, but in the end I believe your criticism boils down to the same criticism often levied against Bitcoin; "Since it isn't backed by anything, it is devoid of value".
<M7918070_[m]>
But this isn't what defines value. By spot-future parity, value is defined by whatever the market believes the future (time-discounted) value to be.
<ghost43>
the node cannot have trustless access to market valuation of these futures. that valuation would be a trusted oracle. further, another insurmountable issue is IBD. if all this is in the past, how do you sync a node? you need historical data. it's not realistic.
<M7918070_[m]>
TL;DR: in practice, a node could assume the market converged to what was accurate, and the violations of this rule of thumb would be few enough to safely be handled out-of-band
<M7918070_[m]>
"the node cannot have trustless access to market valuation of these futures" - certainly it could? Assuming you're trading tokens on the same chain, it would be trivial to build an exchange. No need for a trusted third-party or even atomic cross-chain swaps.
<ghost43>
by trusting that the chain converged to what was accurate you downgrade all fullnodes to light clients basically
<M7918070_[m]>
I could just make a txn saying, "I get 12 of token A and you get 24 of token B", signed by me, where the other end is an invalid addr with no signature, and send this out
<M7918070_[m]>
on IRC or specialized software.
<M7918070_[m]>
Nodes could verify trading is being carried out, and they would never be forced to rely on the same markets. Even if they all used some API, it would be safe.
<ghost43>
so I buy 10000 A tokens and 10000 B tokens, and trade between myself with whatever price I want
<M7918070_[m]>
ghost43: I am not trusting the chain will ever converge. Each time they don't agree, a split will happen. That is unavoidable.
<M7918070_[m]>
You could observe that other trades are taking place; you'd have to do "real" manipulation to trick them too
<M7918070_[m]>
"another insurmountable issue is IBD. if all this is in the past, how do you sync a node? you need historical data. it's not realistic" By then it would have converged, since the hashrates of the false chains would be ~0
<ghost43>
no. how do you determine the true price? do you take an average e.g.?
<ghost43>
I can flood the market with fake prices trades between myself.
<M7918070_[m]>
It would be trivial to fix that anyway. Just add a special flag or whatever to a TXN, "isfungible"
<M7918070_[m]>
you'd have to burn through the order book
<ghost43>
what order book? how would full nodes see that?
<M7918070_[m]>
By connecting to an exchange. Any exchange, as per the law of one price
<ghost43>
but then that exchange is part of the consensus!!
<ghost43>
they can force a split by selectively showing different realities to different nodes
<M7918070_[m]>
"isfungible" would means each addr just signs what comes in and goes out, not to where it comes. So I could sign, "will trade 12 A for 27 B but don't care with who", and that would be a valid txn if and only if added together with a matching "will trade 27 B for 12 A"
<M7918070_[m]>
IOW, the mempool would double as a matching engine.
<ghost43>
the mempool cannot be part of the consensus as there isn't one during IBD
<M7918070_[m]>
In this way, you can no more carry out your desired attack. You would have no way of making sure you're actually trading with yourself
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<ghost43>
if I have 10k A and 10k B I can make infinite "will trade 12 A for 27 B but don't care with who" trades between me any myself
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<M7918070_[m]>
no
<M7918070_[m]>
someone has to take them too
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<ghost43>
I will take them
<M7918070_[m]>
you could add infinite "I'll trade 12 A for 27 B", and infinite "I'll trade 27 B for 12 A", but you'd have no way of making sure you match yourself
<M7918070_[m]>
since you can't tell who'd be on the opposing end
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<M7918070_[m]>
so you'd have to buy up the order book, which is standard market manipulation and costs of lot of money
<ghost43>
there cannot be an orderbook as part of consensus....
<M7918070_[m]>
For IBD, you mean?
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<M7918070_[m]>
The longest chain will eventually converge to the truth, provided the market values truth.
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<M7918070_[m]>
Since the block reward is denominated in X-coin, a higher difficulty will imply higher value, and thus the longest chain hypothesis still holds.
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<M7918070_[m]>
So, IBD could just rely on the longest chain. Optionally, he could augument it by looking at the executions actually carried out. If futures for "1 XC if outcome X resolves to 1" traded at ~1XC historically, then whatever blocks followed that probably were right. This is not a good idea however, as the long-term convergence is what's important, and that's measured by hashrate
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<M7918070_[m]>
"followed that" -> "followed that assumed that"
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<M7918070_[m]>
It relies on a slightly stronger form of the efficient market hypothesis, basically. I'm not betting "the market is right now", I'm betting "the market is right now and it always was in the future". But obviously that is weaker. So during IBD, a node should just know what chain he wants to be on, e.g. what the market values
<M7918070_[m]>
e.g. what has the highest hashrate
<M7918070_[m]>
e.g. what has the highest chainwork
<M7918070_[m]>
and we're back in "easily computable with no human intervention" territory
<ghost43>
good luck
<M7918070_[m]>
Do you see any flaws with it?
<M7918070_[m]>
I am serious, I would like feedback on the idea. Paul Sztorc suggested a very similar idea, Truthcoin, but which relied on sidechain mining
<ghost43>
you require active human intervention as part of mining, for every oracle-made decision. this is not realistic
<M7918070_[m]>
The only issue I can see is miners including "hard" questions, that they know they won't have to answer to.
<ghost43>
further, you require the same for full nodes, except you sweep it under the rug and say it's not important, but then you degrade full nodes to light clients in fact
<M7918070_[m]>
That human intervention will be profitable, and many humans desire to carry it out
<M7918070_[m]>
There is a strong demand for prediction markets
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<M7918070_[m]>
I don't sweep anything under the rug. A full node could very well validate whatever they want to
<M7918070_[m]>
but there's no need for them to do so
<M7918070_[m]>
The issue I outlined could be solved by the miners mining that block receive some share of the total volume. That does require you to limit the smart contracts though
<M7918070_[m]>
to avoid freeloading
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<M7918070_[m]>
You're right in that full nodes would most likely choose to go with the optimization of not validating blocks. But they are under no obligation to do so. Even if they did, the criticism is not as you claim
<M7918070_[m]>
It's more accurate to say, "this could reduce full nodes to light clients during IBD, but not after that"
<ghost43>
let's say I am a small miner with a few ASICS only, and cheap electricity. I cannot afford to manually inspect these oracle-transactions, so it would make sense for me not to mine ANY of them, do you agree?
<M7918070_[m]>
no
<M7918070_[m]>
you'd join a pool
<ghost43>
to be clear, I am not mining in a pool.
<ghost43>
why would I do that? I want to build my own blocks not blindly follow the overlords.
<M7918070_[m]>
is your power free or just very cheap?
<ghost43>
no such thing as free power
<M7918070_[m]>
The overlords are not trusted any more than they are not to shoot themselves in the foot
<ghost43>
ok so now you are saying everyone *needs* to mine as part of a large pool
<M7918070_[m]>
OK. As such a miner, you'd have to follow the market. In the extremely rare cases of market manipulation, you would indeed sometimes happen to mine some orphan blocks. Tough luck.
<M7918070_[m]>
There's certainly more fixed costs to it than Bitcoin, yes
<M7918070_[m]>
in Bitcoin, you have network costs (basically constant) and ASIC costs (linear to hashrate)
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<M7918070_[m]>
in pools you can save on these network costs by spreading them out, which is part of why they're so common
<M7918070_[m]>
here, same thing
<M7918070_[m]>
you can mine yourself, but pools are more profitable
<ghost43>
but the issue is, it's not just that I would not mine any oracle-transactions because I cannot tell if they are valid, but inductively, I might not mine on top of a tip that directly include a prediction that I cannot validate
<M7918070_[m]>
I imagine they'd be much more common but you would have some madmen who didn't for ideological reaons
<ghost43>
your model basically incentivizes centralisation even further than it is today
<M7918070_[m]>
why do you care? you only want to maximize income
<M7918070_[m]>
your calculation is fairly simple, where do I get the most dollars for my hashrate
<ghost43>
I care because I do not want to get reorged
<M7918070_[m]>
doesn't matter, you still got your fiat
<ghost43>
what? no, I won't get money if the block gets reorged
<M7918070_[m]>
if you trade it between mining it and reorg, that is the exchange's problem
<ghost43>
you cannot trade it. there is coinbase maturity
<M7918070_[m]>
It would incentivize centralization, but not up to 51% or anywhere. It does get a little bit worse though. Bitcoin has it pretty bad and they're doing OK so I wouldn't worry
<M7918070_[m]>
right
<M7918070_[m]>
you'd be taking a slight long position on the branch you're minig on then
<M7918070_[m]>
but yes, you're just observing that pools decrease orphan rate
<M7918070_[m]>
that's true for BTC too
<M7918070_[m]>
so why is it a problem?
<M7918070_[m]>
As for your other objection: "I might not mine on top of a tip that directly include a prediction that I cannot validate"
<ghost43>
the problem is that if I cannot afford to validate the blocks I mine on top then either I don't mine at all or I must join a pool
<M7918070_[m]>
spot-future parity says that's OK; if the current tip were to include an invalid txn, it would drop in value.
<M7918070_[m]>
so you can just observe the exchange rate no proble
<M7918070_[m]>
you don't have to join a pool, it's just more profitable to do so
<M7918070_[m]>
you could observe the market and out-of-band mechanisms
<ghost43>
the market does not react fast enough for 10 minute blocks
<ghost43>
we have just established that these decisions cannot be automated
<ghost43>
so the market could only react if people were manually inspecting everything real time
<M7918070_[m]>
the market's decision would be implicit by hashrate
<M7918070_[m]>
and it reacts far quicker than that to e.g. news
<M7918070_[m]>
people would do that if it made them money
<M7918070_[m]>
and no, not real-time
<M7918070_[m]>
you could inspect something several weeks beforehand if you wanted to
<M7918070_[m]>
then, you could just say that you don't want to trade any coins in chains in which X is resolved to Y. IOW, you're saying you're putting up good money X won't resolve to Y.
<M7918070_[m]>
which is what you can observe from the markets
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<M7918070_[m]>
look at the flipside: what if there were an exchange in which each new block were considered as a fork? Then you could observe the xchg rates there as multiminers do already (e.g. with NiceHash)
<M7918070_[m]>
and then decide what to mine, based on that
<ghost43>
do you run a fullnode?
<M7918070_[m]>
no? Miners already do this, and it's safe.
<ghost43>
personally I mean. for bitcoin.
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<M7918070_[m]>
why's that of any relevance? I know how they work
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<ghost43>
Would you still run one if it required all this constant regular human intervention?
<ghost43>
I would not. I would not use such a cryptocurrency simply. it's too much hassle
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<ghost43>
if no ones runs full nodes we are all at the mercy of miners
<M7918070_[m]>
I'd just trust the miners. I'd still verify the transactions, even if there were no need.
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<ghost43>
you could not verify the transactions we have established that. it's meaningless to say you would
<M7918070_[m]>
No. Satoshi did envision that everyone would run full nodes. Due to fraud proofs being computationally expensive, that has met some other roadblocks, but it's not infeasible.
<M7918070_[m]>
The transactions, yes. The oracles, no.
<M7918070_[m]>
I could verify addresses have valid sigs and such
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<M7918070_[m]>
I could also monitor the markets, and get notified whenever the consensus diverged from the markets.
<M7918070_[m]>
Then, I could run a calculation: When does the nodes' expense of keeping up this charade exceed how much it'd cost to manipulate the market?
<M7918070_[m]>
So my security is better than that of a thin node, and thin nodes would have plenty enough security if fraud proofs did exist.
<ghost43>
there is no way to trustlessly monitor the markets. whatever central API you would connect to could selectively lie to some nodes
<M7918070_[m]>
untrue
<M7918070_[m]>
with the suggestion I outline, the market could be monitored by only looking at the blockchain
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<M7918070_[m]>
so blockchain at time T would tell you what the market priced the stuff at between time T and T-1, which as per spot-future parity meant its expectation to T+N for any N where N >= 0
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<M7918070_[m]>
as for "putting us all at the mercy of miners" - how about the Satoshi quote where he says that's no problem?
<M7918070_[m]>
"Long before the network gets anywhere near as large as that, it would be safe for users to use Simplified Payment Verification (section 8) to check for double spending"
<M7918070_[m]>
" At first, most users would run network nodes, but as the network grows beyond a certain point, it would be left more and more to specialists with server farms of specialized hardware."
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<M7918070_[m]>
It is not impossible to trustlessly monitor a market, and it is not the end of the world if more miners start using pools or if full nodes have to trust miners not to include false data.
<M7918070_[m]>
Do you disagree with this?
<M7918070_[m]>
Do you find any other issues?
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