sipa changed the topic of #bitcoin-wizards to: This channel is for discussing theoretical ideas with regard to cryptocurrencies, not about short-term Bitcoin development | http://bitcoin.ninja/ | This channel is logged. | For logs and more information, visit http://bitcoin.ninja
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<GoldenAngle_>
Did your majesties like Golden fork picture?
<sipa>
get lost
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<midnightmagic>
gee an irccloud user. I'm.. so surprised.
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<fluffypony>
we've had to ban him from #monero, he's disruptive
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<stevenroose>
fluffypony, I don
<stevenroose>
't get how those people exist
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<draadpiraat[m]>
well when a mommy troll and a daddy troll love eachother very much...
<stevenroose>
draadpiraat[m], :D :D that name
<stevenroose>
geniaal
<draadpiraat[m]>
;)
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<Taek>
I have a new method for difficulty adjustment. Unless I'm missing something, I think it allows you to safely adjust the block difficulty every block
<Taek>
*without having violent swings due to randomness
<Taek>
basically you have a running tally of all the work that's been performed (which you get by summing the difficulties of each block), and also a running tally of how much time has passed
<Taek>
then each block, you adjust the difficulty based on the hashrate derived from looking at these (difficulty / time = measured hashrate)
<Taek>
then you take the totals and multiply by 0.998
<Taek>
This places exponential preference on recent blocks, but the half life is just over 2 days, meaning the oddball block that takes 90 minutes isn't going to be very disruptive
<Taek>
you can keep the difficulty clamps at 0.1% adjustment per block
<Taek>
This should result in much better responsiveness to changes in hashrate, while also providing greater resistance to difficulty raising attacks
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<draadpiraat[m]>
improving difficulty readjustment in the sudden-drop case would need a hardfork, right?
<draadpiraat[m]>
if so, is it on the hardfork wishlist? (the hardfork wishlist has no link on bitcoin.ninja so not sure where to find it)
<Taek>
it helps with both sudden increases in hashrate (say, 10nm asics show up tomorrow) and also sudden decreases in hashrate - hardfork, switched coins, etc
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<Taek>
I don't think difficulty adjustment algorithms are super high on anyone's priority list because thus far they haven't caused much problems
<Taek>
rather, the altcoins that try to solve difficulty adjustment issues have typically run into much more severe issues than the original algorithm would have
<Taek>
getting difficulty adjustment right is deceptively challenging, it's a big graveyard
<sipa>
Taek: that sounds vaguely similar to the hashrate estimation algorithm i have on bitcoin.sipa.be
<sipa>
except it also extrapolates
<sipa>
have you simulated this approach?
<Taek>
I have, though with more aggressive constants.
<Taek>
sipa: I don't see any links to the algorithm from the root page
<sipa>
ha
<draadpiraat[m]>
sipa: the y-axis on those graphs seems off
<sipa>
draadpiraat[m]: yes, need to fix :)
<sipa>
Taek: i have a description of the algorithm somewhere... it's not useful for difficulty adjustment, though
<sipa>
it is based on the assumption that in near history, the actual hashrate is exponentially growing
<sipa>
and then based on the random sampling you can estimate what the parameters of that exponential function are
<draadpiraat[m]>
how about dwindling hashrate/sudden drops? seems like it's not an unrealistic scenario given this supposed UAHF
<draadpiraat[m]>
(sorry, not enough quotes around that term)
<Taek>
sipa: is the algorithm flexible enough to correctly see if the exponent is negative?
<Taek>
also, why do you say that it's not useful for difficulty adjustment?
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<sipa>
Taek: because it extrapolates
<sipa>
for example, if it uses data of the past 3 days, the average data point is maybe 1-1.5 days old
<sipa>
it estimates the parameters of an exponential function with this data, and then evaluates that function at the now timestamp
<sipa>
however, it is likely to swing wildly because of sampling noise
<sipa>
yes, it will correctly estimate decreases
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<sipa>
iirc, it was a surprisingly simple formula based on the average age of all past hashrate with a decaying average
<Taek>
<sipa> however, it is likely to swing wildly because of sampling noise
<Taek>
couldn't you fight that noise by sampling over more days?
<Taek>
or does that make the data too old/
<sipa>
it's still extrapolating
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